Economists and Career Experts Say Jobless Recovery is Underway

California’s economy and employment market are on the road to recovery, but the pace will continue to be slow through 2010, according to some of the state’s leading economists and jobs experts.

As California’s business climate appears to have turned a corner, unemployment will remain high and slow to recover. Panelists from Tuesday’s “Fear and Laboring in California” webcast agreed that while the worst part of the recession is behind us, employers are watching their bottom line and remain extremely tentative about hiring.

“It’s not quite as bad as it was [six months ago],” said Jack Kyser, founding member of the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. “We are still seeing year-to-year job losses but they are not as large as they were. Businesses are starting to see slightly better signs of improvement in orders but they are still very concerned and being very cautious. So, I think it’s going to be a slow recovery, unfortunately.”

Six months ago, Kyser and the other panelists – Pepperdine economics professor David Smith, career strategist Daisy Swan and Everest College regional vice president John Andrews – discussed the economy and job market following results from the California Labor Day Survey, which was conducted by Harris/Decima and sponsored by Everest College. The most significant and perhaps obvious finding of the survey was that approximately half of the state’s employed workers are working harder, toiling longer hours and experiencing less job security than they did two years ago. The panelists agreed that confidence among workers may have picked up slightly in the past six months regarding job security, but employees and employers are still cautious about the economic and job environment.

“Things are certainly looking up in terms of economic activity, but even in a typical recession, employment is the last economic indicator to improve,” said Smith, an associate dean at Pepperdine. “There is still a lot of anxiety out there in terms of where we are headed, how slow is the recovery going to be, and I think environment has led employers to be cautious about hiring. However, we are seeing nice upticks in the number of temporary workers being hired, which usually precedes permanent hires being made, so I think there is reason to be optimistic.”

Compared with the rest of the nation, California has a unique set of problems and its housing market is going to act as a break in the state’s recovery, according to Kyser.

“California will probably lag the nation a little bit because we have the issue with construction and ongoing job loss in manufacturing and the government financial problems,” Kyser said.

The consensus among panelists is that the environment calls for more entrepreneurial thinking among workers. Whether they are students, current employees or the recently unemployed, many Californians are thinking creatively on how to elevate their status in the job market.

“One thing that we are hearing about is people starting up businesses, and it’s interesting that most of these people are having success,” Kyser said. “They are finding a lot of interesting opportunities for themselves out there.”

Andrews agreed with Kyser’s assessment and encourages students to incorporate an entrepreneurial element into their education. “If we look at a number of our programs that would attract small business owners, we’re trying to encourage those students to pick up some of the business courses that allow them to successfully open their own business.”

In a tight job market and tough economy, the panelists cited continued education or training for a new career as a prime factor to compete for jobs in California.

“This emphasis on education can’t be stressed enough,” Smith said. “If you have an education, you’re less likely to be unemployed and most importantly, even if you are a casualty of a layoff in a downturn, you’re much more likely to find a job than those without a degree.”

Californians are also reevaluating their priorities when it comes to job searching, focusing on healthcare benefits, according to Swan, who helps clients with their career direction and personal goals.

“I work with a lot of freelancers, and the crunch of our economy has really hurt them,” Swan said. “They are desperate to get a job with benefits. These are people who have really enjoyed their flexibility and autonomy and are willing to give it all up for some sort of security. I’d say that’s the predominant thing people are coming to me with – I want a job with security.”

Source: PondelWilkinson

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